The Final Push for Champions League Spots

The final push is always the most challenging. The fight for a Champions League race is proving to be an uphill struggle. Perhaps it is no coincidence that it coincides with the Giro d'Italia, cycling’s most iconic pink race. Over the course of three weeks, there is nowhere to hide weaknesses: A spell of brilliance can suddenly turn into a difficult day, there is nowhere to mask your fitness, and every climb requires different solutions. Hours are spent planning and studying the route, highlighting the key moments of the schedule where it seems logical to make the difference. Yet things rarely go exactly as planned. More often than not, it is the supposedly easier stretches that prove the most challenging: a tactical mistake, a gap allowed to grow too large, an unexpected crash, bad weather, and suddenly everything becomes more complicated. Anxiety rises, and all the work behind the scenes begins to fade away. The objective slips out of reach at the most unpredictable moment. Framed this way, it may sound extraordinary, but it is exactly what is happening in Serie A right now.

Turning our focus back to the tightly contested Champions League battle, the current picture of the league mirrors the cycling race perfectly. The leading group consists of five teams, with everyone carefully studying one another, and the space for a decisive final attack is becoming tighter and tighter. It is fast becoming a story of missed opportunities, chances that could prove decisive at the finish line. It’s impossible to predict what could happen, partly because of the competing sides’ opponents, who theoretically have little left to play for, but freed from this pressure and expectation, they have managed to produce some incredible displays against the protagonists of this fight. That is how Napoli, second in the table, ended up losing at home to a Bologna side struggling for results, capable of racing into a 2-0 lead before reviving themselves late on through Rowe’s bicycle kick following Napoli’s equaliser. It was a similar story for Milan, who produced no goals for almost an hour at San Siro against an Atalanta squad who have now firmly settled in seventh place. The Rossoneri made a strong push late on, but Atalanta’s 3-2 victory ultimately proved inevitable. For Juventus and Como, it was the same scoreline: narrow yet significant 1-0 away wins that brought the finish line within reach. For Roma, their latest victory may well have been the perfect surge in the toughest part of the climb. After making a comeback in the match against Parma in stoppage time, the Giallorossi are currently the most in-form team of all.
Making predictions about who will be able to make the most of the theoretically ‘easier’ fixtures is pointless: every twist of the road hides danger, every climb demands the right tools.

The State of Play

The summit, or in cycling terms, the King of the Mountains, is now just two kilometres away, in other words, two matches away. For the five contenders, the road ahead is already mapped out.

After the disappointment at the Maradona, Napoli travel to the Cetilar Arena to face Pisa. Although already relegated to Serie B, the Tuscan side have continued to fight hard in recent weeks despite defeats against Lecce and, most recently, Cremonese. Among the teams battling for a spot at Europe’s top competition, Antonio Conte’s side appear the most likely to reach the summit without further surprises. The defeat to Bologna certainly caused alarm bells to ring, but the clash with a team at the bottom of the table presents the Partenopei with a golden opportunity to seal qualification and avoid taking the pressure into the final matchday. Napoli need just three points to guarantee qualification mathematically; otherwise, it would come down to combinations and scenarios for another nerve-racking week. Matchday 38 features a showdown against Udinese at home, a notoriously unpredictable side who have already caused the league’s biggest teams to slip up, including Inter and Milan.

Juventus keep themselves firmly in the running. They must avoid being overtaken and are relying on their coach’s expansive experience, Luciano Spalletti, a man who knows plenty about Champions League qualification battles. He was on the touchline for Inter’s incredible comeback in 2018, sealed by Vecino’s dramatic goal at the Olimpico against Lazio, a story of an almost unimaginable feat. The current situation is a lot more favourable for the Bianconeri, who have already climbed into third place and now need to hold onto it. After overtaking Milan thanks to victory in Lecce, Juventus now hope to defeat Fiorentina and then Torino. There is no need to analyse the numbers here: both are historic rivals, and neither will give anything away. The match against Fiorentina is a vital test to confirm Juventus’ promising form, while the Mole will host the dramatic finale against Torino.

In cycling jargon, a “hunger crisis” refers to a sudden collapse caused by depleted energy reserves and poor nutrition during a race. It is also a fitting description for Milan at the moment. The Rossoneri, who were one of the stars of the first half of the season, are now facing their most challenging period. Massimiliano Allegri and the club have implemented a training retreat at Milanello ahead of the decisive clash at Marassi against Genoa. They now hope to find a sense of cohesion within the squad again and rediscover their drive for success that appears to have faded after missing out on the Scudetto to their rivals, the Nerazzurri. Milan are still in control of their own destiny, but now need two victories to avoid relying on slips elsewhere. On paper, the Rossoneri could still finish second, or even drop to sixth. The final matchday sees them host Cagliari at San Siro, another obstacle requiring focus and determination.

Roma are making their decisive push, or put otherwise, they are riding out of the saddle. Like cyclists who have studied the route and know they can break away, they simply need to decide when to launch the decisive sprint. But Gian Piero Gasperini and his side were in for a scare in Parma, in a match that perfectly reflected the unpredictability of the race for top four. After overcoming the Tardini trap, the Giallorossi now prepare for the derby. A unique fixture, a championship of its own, regardless of objectives. Lazio want to hinder Roma, but for the Giallorossi, it’s one final test of maturity. After the derby, their journey will continue to Bentegodi to face Verona. Malen and his teammates know that even two victories may not be enough, as they still need one of the teams above them to slip up. There is still a long way to go, but hope remains alive.

Then there is the unexpected challenger, slightly behind but still within sight. Como made history last week against Verona, securing European qualification and achieving something extraordinary in a season that could still end on 71 points if they win their final two matches. Remarkable numbers for the Lariani, considering where the club stood only two seasons ago. It may still not be enough for a Champions League place, with at least two teams ahead to beat. First comes Parma at the Sinigaglia, then Cremonese at the Zini, and only then will the final calculations be made. The Lariani must play with no regrets and the certainty of having done all that was within their power to keep the dream alive. For Cesc Fàbregas, the same logic applies as with Gasperini: pick up six points and let the pressure shift elsewhere. There is no other option; there’s nothing left but to keep pushing.