Lecce vs. Cremonese, long-distance race for survival
The relegation battle is entering its decisive phase, with an increasingly close duel: Lecce and Cremonese are separated by just one point and fighting to stay in Serie A in a race that looks set to go down to the wire.
Ahead of them, Fiorentina and Cagliari have built a more comfortable buffer, sitting +9 and +8 above the drop zone respectively - close to safety, but not quite there yet. Further back, Pisa and Verona are now almost out of reach, with their survival hopes hanging by a thread and a double-digit gap to safety.
Pisa vs. Lecce: the first key test, potentially decisive outcomes
Lecce open Matchday 35 on Friday evening away to Pisa at the Arena Garibaldi. It could already prove decisive: the Giallorossi need just one point to mathematically send the Tuscan side down, while Pisa must win to keep their slim hopes alive. For Lecce, it’s a big chance to pull clear of Cremonese and move closer to safety.
The first meeting went Lecce’s way thanks to Stulic’s winner in a 1-0 result, while the only previous Serie A clash in Pisa dates back to 1990, a 4-0 win for the hosts.
Opposite paths, same target
Lecce and Cremonese have had very different campaigns but now find themselves in the same battle. Cremonese picked up most of their points early on, even spending time in mid-table, before a sharp decline that started after a 2-0 win over Lecce on Matchday 14. Since then, just one win and eight points in 20 games.
Lecce, on the other hand, have been in the bottom half almost from the start, becoming more used to pressure and survival fights. That experience could matter now, even if they arrive on a six-game winless run, last winning 2-1 in the reverse fixture at the Via del Mare.
Cremonese’s home game against Lazio is another major checkpoint. With Lecce already having played, they will go into Monday’s 18:30 CEST kick-off knowing their rival’s result, something that can either add pressure or serve as motivation.
Attacking output
The attacking numbers highlight both teams’ difficulties but also tell a more nuanced story. Lecce have scored just 22 goals in 34 matches, the lowest in the league (and in Europe’s top five leagues), while Cremonese sit on 26. However, these stats are not necessarily decisive in survival.
Recent Serie A history proves that you don’t always need a high attacking output to survive: Empoli stayed up in 2023/24 with only 29 goals (the lowest scoring attack in the league and fewer than all three relegated sides). Lecce themselves survived in 2024/25 with 27, again fewer than the teams that went down.
What matters most now is consistency. Lecce have failed to score in four of their last five games, while Cremonese are goalless in their last three. This could prove to be a deciding factor in the race.
Defensive solidity
Defensively, Lecce are slightly more solid, having conceded 46 goals, 12th best in the league and the strongest among the relegation contenders, level with Fiorentina (45). Cremonese have conceded 51, while Cagliari are on 49.
In this case too, the numbers need context. A stronger defensive record can be an advantage, but it doesn’t guarantee anything. The recent experience of Di Francesco is a clear example: last season his Venezia side were relegated despite having a mid-table defensive record.
In the end, balance at both ends of the pitch is what counts most in the run-in.
Di Francesco vs. Giampaolo: familiar faces, new battle
The survival race also features a tactical subplot between Eusebio Di Francesco and Marco Giampaolo, meeting again in the same fight a year later but in reversed roles.
Last season Giampaolo secured survival with Lecce, ahead of Empoli and Di Francesco’s Venezia. Key moments included a win in Venice on his debut after replacing Gotti, and a draw in the return fixture. Today, Giampaolo is in charge of Cremonese and is looking to repeat that achievement, this time at the expense of Lecce. Meanwhile, Di Francesco is trying to end a negative run that has seen him relegated with Frosinone and Venezia, despite strong working spells at both clubs.
Two journeys that meet again with a common aim: staying in Serie A.
The run-in compared: the importance of the final matchdays
The schedule adds further complexity. After Pisa, Lecce face Juventus at home, Sassuolo away and Genoa at home on the final day.
Cremonese, after their clash against Lazio, host Pisa (who could already be relegated), travel to Udine and finish the season at home against Como in a potentially decisive Lombard derby.
Cagliari and Fiorentina, despite having a comfortable cushion, both face tricky fixtures. Cagliari travel to Bologna, while Fiorentina are away to Roma. Matchday 36 could offer a chance to wrap things up, with more favourable fixtures on paper: Cagliari host Udinese, while Fiorentina take on Genoa. Two sides with little left to play for at this stage of the season.
With only a few games left, the margins are finer than ever. Lecce and Cremonese are locked side by side in a tight balance where every point can change everything. If they finish level, a play-off would decide who stays up.