Final stretch of the Champions League race

An entire season comes down to ninety minutes. Serie A is heading into its final stretch with four teams separated by just two points and only two remaining places available in next season’s Champions League.

Behind champions Inter and current second-place Napoli, already assured of European football, the race for Europe’s top competition remains completely open. AC Milan and Roma start the final day in pole position and have control over their own fate, while Como and Juventus are dependent on the hope of one final twist.

Juventus’ defeat to Fiorentina on the penultimate matchday completely reshaped the landscape, lifting Roma back into fourth place for the first time since Matchday 27 — when the comeback defeat suffered against Juventus at the Olimpico had sent the Giallorossi into a downward spiral — and turning the final matchday into a complicated web of potential results combinations and head-to-head calculations. There are still 15 possible scenarios in which any of AC Milan, Roma, Como and Juventus would finish level on points. In the event of a tie, the first criterion will be the head-to-head mini-table, followed by overall goal difference and goals scored.

There is even an extreme scenario: AC Milan and Roma draw, Juventus and Como both win, and all four teams finish on 71 points. In that case, AC Milan and Como would qualify for next season’s Champions League.

AC Milan: match point at San Siro

Victory in Genoa restored belief and breathing space to AC Milan at the most delicate point of the season. After several difficult weeks, Allegri has received necessary responses from his leading figures: Nkunku has brought depth and attacking presence back to a forward line that had stalled, Pulisic returned to decisive form with the assist for Atekhame, while Maignan has once again made the difference with interventions befitting a leader.

Now, everything is set at San Siro, where Cagliari arrive for what is effectively a Champions League match point. AC Milan hold the biggest advantage of all: a win guarantees qualification, regardless of other results.

The Rossoneri hold the edge in head-to-head records against Roma and Como, though they would be disadvantaged against Juventus on overall goal difference following the two seasonal draws with the Bianconeri.

AC Milan qualify for the Champions League if:

• they beat Cagliari
• they draw and Roma fail to win
• they draw, Roma win, but Juventus fail to win (if Juventus win in this scenario, AC Milan would miss out)
• they lose, but Roma also lose and at least one of Como or Juventus fails to win
• they lose, while Roma, Como and Juventus all also lose

Roma: Gasperini’s dreams of a return to Europe’s elite

Roma head into the final day on a wave of real momentum. Victory in the derby and the leapfrog over Juventus have restored the Giallorossi to fourth place, reviving hopes of a return to the Champions League, absent since 2017/18, when Di Francesco guided the capital’s club to a third-place finish.

Gasperini’s side is enjoying one of its strongest periods of the campaign: four consecutive wins and a squad that appears to have rediscovered conviction and clarity at exactly the right moment. For long-serving figures such as Mancini, Cristante, Dybala and El Shaarawy, qualification would represent the culmination of years spent narrowly missing out through fifth and sixth-place finishes.

The trip to Verona, however, is anything but straightforward. Despite already being mathematically relegated, Hellas Verona have shown in recent weeks that they intend to honour the competition to the end, having already taken points from Juventus and Inter, while proving a real challenge for Como.

Roma are also disadvantaged in the head-to-head combinations: AC Milan, Juventus and Como would all finish ahead of them in a points tie.

Roma qualify for the Champions League if:

• they beat Verona
• they draw, AC Milan lose and at least one of Como or Juventus fails to win
• they draw and neither Como nor Juventus win
• they lose, while both Como and Juventus fail to win

Como and Fabregas chasing history

Como have already produced the greatest season of their modern history — but appear to have no intention of stopping. Europa League qualification is already secured, yet Cesc Fabregas’ side continues to chase something extraordinary: Champions League football in the club’s first-ever European campaign.

After a slight dip in April, the Lariani have responded emphatically: 10 points from the last four matches without conceding a goal, the result of remarkable defensive solidity. Their 19 clean sheets are a season-high across Europe, perhaps the clearest reflection of the growth of Fabregas’ side.

Como hold the advantage over Juventus in head-to-head results and over Roma via goal difference, but would lose to AC Milan. That makes the trip to Cremonese particularly dangerous. The hosts remain embroiled in the relegation battle and desperately need a result to survive — conditions likely to turn the Zini Stadium into one of the most intense venues of the final day.

Como qualify for the Champions League if:

• they win and both AC Milan and Roma fail to win
• they win and AC Milan lose
• they win and Roma fail to win
• they win and the four-way tie on 71 points occurs

Juventus’s hopes rest on the Derby

Until a week ago, everything seemed set. Then came the collapse against Fiorentina, dropping Juventus from the driving seat of the Champions League race to the back of the pack.

Now the Bianconeri must beat Torino in the Derby della Mole and hope for at least two slip-ups among AC Milan, Roma and Como.

Spalletti’s side are going into the final matchday surrounded by uncertainty. The attack has stalled completely over the last month: only Dusan Vlahović has scored in the last four matches, having just returned from a lengthy injury absence. There are also defensive concerns: 46% of Juventus’ goals conceded have been from the opposition’s first shot on target of the match, the highest percentage in Serie A — a statistic that raises questions for Di Gregorio and the entire defensive unit.

Failure to qualify would be significant. Juventus’ last absence from the Champions League dates back to 2010/11, with the only exception being 2022/23, affected by the points deduction. For Spalletti, a specialist in European qualification, it would be a major anomaly: 14 Champions League qualifications in the last 15 Serie A seasons.

Juventus hold the edge over AC Milan and Roma in head-to-heads, but trail Como.

Juventus qualify for the Champions League if:

• they win while both AC Milan and Roma lose
• they win, Como fail to win, and at least one of AC Milan or Roma either loses or draws

A final 90 minutes of tension and emotion

AC Milan and Roma still hold the greatest advantage: their fate remains in their own hands. Como and Juventus, meanwhile, must win and hope.

But this Champions League race has already proven capable of changing shape every single week. And after such a balanced season, it is difficult to imagine any ending other than this: ninety minutes of tension, complications and calculations right to the final whistle.